Rubber contracts rose 3% and volatility rose significantly. At present, no special news leads to the rise.

We understand that the lower the price of rubber is, the longer it is lower than the production cost, the more likely the rebound will be.

The driving force for the rise of rubber comes from the expectation of medium range production reduction. At the end of May every year, the main rubber producing area in Thailand will be cut. Under the premise of rubber slump, the cutting will be good. Why? Because the opening and cutting period of rubber is up, the production will be reduced by 10% as well, because the production base in the opening and cutting period is large, leading to a greater reduction in production.

About 10000 yuan of rubber, which is significantly lower than the production cost in China, has been reduced. It is also lower than the cost of major producing countries such as Thailand. The longer the time of low price is, the more the production reduction is, the greater the probability of mismatch between supply and demand is, and the easier it is to rise suddenly.

US stocks were blown several times in March. there was no parallel in history. Epidemic situation dominates the market.

Saudi Russia's crude oil production forecast is the key to the decline of crude oil. Production led to crude oil unable to be stored and prices plummeted.

The epidemic and the fall in crude oil triggered a liquidity crisis, causing most assets to fall. From the VIX Index and other indicators, panic has basically subsided. But the economic downturn is expected to rise. It is suggested that investors keep conservative as the main strategy.

From January 20 to February 3, due to the epidemic situation in China, rubber fell sharply. On February 28, the U.S. stocks fell sharply due to the U.S. epidemic, leading to a sharp drop in rubber.

On December 4, 2019, Thailand's cabinet has approved a 20-year plan to cut rubber tree planting area by 21% in order to more than triple rubber exports. Rubber soared.

What about the industry? Most industry data are relatively stable.

As of April 30, 2020, the starting load of all steel tire in Shandong tire enterprises is 59.73%, 3.45 percentage points lower than last week, 9.65 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The starting load of half steel tire in domestic tire enterprises was 52.56%, down 6.92 percentage points from last week and 15.65 percentage points from the same period last year. The domestic all steel tire market performance is relatively stable, the export pressure of all steel tire increases, the inventory pressure increases, and the operating rate may decrease in the future. In April 2020, the average starting load of all steel tire in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.46%, 4.97% higher than that of last month, and 12.70% lower than that of the same period last year.

As of April 30, 2020, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period is 239619 (- 71) tons, and the warehouse receipt is 235510 (300) tons.

Goods in stock

Last trading day, from 16:00-18:00 p.m., the quotation of compound rubber in the spot market was 9500 yuan (300 yuan).

20 glue stock $1160 (30).

Suggestions for operation of natural rubber mesh:

At present, the price is about 10000, and the overall price of rubber is relatively low.

For rubber, we tend to think more about it. It's better to bargain than short. There may be seasonal improvement factors in May, mainly due to insufficient cutting leading to the expected reduction of production. If the superimposition of capital chasing hot factors, it is easy to produce unexpected rebound market.

It is suggested that investors can set stop loss (for example, set 50-100 stop loss), which is much shorter. In the middle line, if we think the macro expectation is stable, we can see that the rubber has a downward space of 9700 and an upward space of 11000-11500. The profit loss ratio is good. It is worth gradually trying more stops when we call back. If there is no callback, it can be treated as short multiple.